29th September 2011 An Optimist's Tour of the Future

Last night I went to another Skeptics in the Pub talk. This talk should have occurred 6 weeks ago, but because of the riots, it was delayed which was good for me as I would have missed it otherwise.

It was a very different talk from the first one I went to on lucid dreaming which was packed full of so much information that my head was reeling afterwards. Who needs drugs when you can get an intellectual high from a talk like that? Whee!

The speaker was Mark Stevenson, and the title "An Optimist's Tour of the Future." It was about changing from looking at the future from a negative point of view to a 'Yes, there is a problem but there are also solutions.' The problem with the doom and gloom is that if we can't see hope, we just give up. What's the point of trying when we're going to fail anyway? Fear is a terrible motivator as it can also paralyse and cause us to give up.

Having a more optimistic view of the future isn't about denying there is a problem, but looking for solutions. Not the cynical 'No, can't solve that, impossible, wont work' but finding a vision and striving for it. There is no way I can express the hope the talk gave to me. The future could be better. It might not be, but that possibility, that glimmer of hope, exists and it's that we need to focus on and make happen.

Look how far we've come.

The amount of change over the last century has been incredible. Here are a few of the things that have been achieved, and are already being achieved.

Life Expectancy

The minimum life expectancy in any country in 1909 was 22 in Bangladesh. Now (2009 figures), the worst is in war torn Afghanistan at double that.

World Population and Food Production

Since 1950, even though the world population has increased from 2.6 billion to 6.9 billion (http://www.npg.org/facts/world_pop_year.htm), the per capita amount of food produced has also increased. There are two and a half times the number of people and we're producing more food per person? Remarkable. So why is there starvation? We've got the food but we're failing on the distribution.

The population is increasing but wont the world become full? The rate of increase of population is slowing and in some countries, the population is decreasing. ;A best guess estimate is that the world population will reach about 10 billion and then start to decrease. There is the capacity to feed that many people.
There's too much carbon dioxide. What can we do? There are materials being produced, and made into something that looks like a brush (http://knowledge.allianz.com/?1580/carbon-capture-artificial-trees-suck-co2-from-air) which captures carbon dioxide from the air and holds on to it. To release this carbon dioxide, just put the brush in water. Ok, so now we have a heap of carbon dioxide and what are we going to do with that? Make it into fuel! (http://www.brightgreencities.com/v1/en/bright-green-book/estados-unidos/conversao-direta-de-dioxide-de-carbon-e-agua-diretamente-em-combustivel/) The aim is carbon neutral fuel stations in 10 years.

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is enabling cheaper solutions - reducing the cost of desalination of sea water. How about something that looks like a teabag for less the 0.5 cents to filter water? (http://inhabitat.com/nanotech-tea-bag-purifies-drinking-water-for-less-than-a-penny/)

Agricultural Waste

Plants capture carbon, but then they die and rot and release it again. Turning agricultural waste into charcoal retains the captured carbon. Why would farmers do this? Two reasons.

• The right sort of charcoal can be used to improve the soil and increase yields by up to 50%. (The wrong sort can decrease it.) More carbon in the soil makes it retain more water, and the soil is more open so after a dry period, the rain doesn't just run off.
• It can be turned into a revenue stream, since agricultural waste can be turned into high quality activated carbon. Activated carbon is used in filtration systems.

Grazing Animals

In Australia, there are area where on one side of the fence the grass is overgrazed and the other it is long and dying. The growing part of grass is at the base, so if the base is blocked, then photosynthesis is restricted and the grass doesn't grow. When grass is eaten by animals, some of the roots are lost to the soil, which puts more carbon back into the soil. It's only a small amount, but a small amount repeated over and over leads to a large amount. (I don't know why this rotting doesn't release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere though.)

The usual way to farm is to split animals into smaller groups and have them in different fields, but this isn't how animals behave in nature. What do zebras do? They graze in tight groups for a few days in one area and then move on. Mimicking this by making fields into smaller sections, allowing the animals to graze for a couple of days and then moving them on leads to

• no need for fertilisers to make the grass grow
• increased biodiversity
• no need to buy food since the grass is growing

One farm in Australia using this method produces beef at a quarter of the Australian average leading to hugely increased profits.

Medicine

We have the skills to transplant organs, but there aren't enough donors. How can this be solved? Printing organs!


The video shows Luke, who had his bladder replaced by a new one grown in the lab 10 years ago.

Drugs

Many drugs are rejected because some people have negative reactions to them. What if the genomes of those people could be sequences and the gene causing the problem be isolated so that drug could be used for the ninety-nine people who could benefit from it and the one person who would have an adverse reaction could be given something else? Sequencing someone's genome is getting cheaper and cheaper, and it's claimed it can currently be done for $30.

At the moment about 1 in 5000 drugs are accepted for use so the drug companies have to absorb the cost of the others making the cost of drugs rocket. If  this cost did not have to be absorbed, then the cost of drugs could drop dramatically.

Barriers to Change

What is it that stops this exciting future from becoming a reality, and from problems being solved?

• Waiting for the government to act - governments are slow and if we wait for them to do something it will be too late. They need to see something being done so they can jump on the bandwagon.
• Cynicism. It's seen as cool and wise to be cynical but it blocks progress and is filled with negativity. It's bad for you and bad for the people around you. It's not about finding a way past problems, but just focusing on them. We need to take responsibility to keep our own cynicism in check.

Now what?

A few things

• The future is here already, it's just not evenly distributed. 
• If you can imagine a better future, you can aim for it.
• Keep cynicism in check.
• Never look at limitations as anything you ever comply with. (Cosmic speed limit? Let's wait and see.) 

For further information, the speaker has written a book, An Optimist's Tour of the Future which I haven't read yet. (I ordered it when I got home last night.) If it's half as good as the talk, it's going to be well worth reading. The book is going to be turned into a film, which is definitely something I want to see even though I dislike cinemas intensely.

Mark is also starting a "meeting place for people and organisations who want to make the world better". For further information see http://leagueofpragmaticoptimists.com/.

At the moment, I don't know what I can do except live with an attitude of hope and a vision of better things to come. That's a start, isn't it?